A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. They composes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
